For a moment, forget about Steven Matz who, more than five years ago, had his best debut in Flushing since the Beatles played Shea Stadium in 1965.
Forever, forget the Matz who lost his way, his job and his job security during the brutal COVID shortened 2020 season.
Instead, look at Matz’s 2016 to 2019 campaigns. Run the numbers and get a guy who averaged 4.17 ERA over 128 ¹ / ₃ innings for the duration of a presidential term.
Get a pitcher worth about $ 5 million for the 2021 New York Mets.
The expiration of Wednesday’s offer for all baseball players who are not subject to a contract and who are not eligible for free agency, the Mets must call if they keep Matz, their home team, for next season. In accordance with collectively negotiated rules, they must offer him no less than 80 percent of their most recent salary, which was $ 5 million (he actually earned about $ 1.85 million for the 60 games). , or then transform him into a free agent.
It looks like the Mets will offer Matz, who may be a free agent later next season, rather than release him. And that will be the good call.
Yes, yes, Matz posted a terrible ERA 9.68 in nine games (six starts, three appearances in relief) last season, getting the rebound out of the starting rotation and spending time on the injured list with shoulder discomfort. left. It was a disaster, one that will prevent Matz from upward financial mobility and that could translate into a “pre-tender” agreement ending Wednesday rather than the two sides moving toward a potential arbitration hearing to determine the salary of the 29-year-old.
It was a disaster, but she it was only a two-month disaster. Even the worst celebrity weddings last more than two months. Not enough of a champion dimension to justify giving up a guy who had established himself as useful and valuable despite not corresponding to the initial highs of his magical 2015 rookie season with his 3-hit, 4-RBI, 7 ² / ₃-innings, 2-runs debut in big league (and co-starred his exuberant grandfather).
Beyond the vast wealth of Steve Cohen, who creates room for error where he didn’t exist before with this organization, Matz has shown enough flashes of hope amid his dumped focus of a campaign. Most notably, its average washer speed of 94.5 ranked as its highest since that 2015 season (94.9).
That extra speed could have been part of the problem, as Mets ageless pitching guru Phil Regan recently commented to Newsday. Yet I would rather handle that problem than the other way around. Also, Matz’s 2020 turnover rates, according to Baseball Savant, were not dramatically out of previous seasons and in some cases were higher.
Launch in the Mets lack of initial pitch depth, though engage with free agents like Trevor Bauer and Jake Odorizzi, and you have another reason to bring Matz back, as his commitment to community service also makes him a good citizen.
If 2020 turns out to be the trend rather than an aberration for Matz? Then free him alone or, if he is too clumsy, throw him on the wounded list with an illness of his choice. Once in that Cohen stash comes the expiration date of the trade and you find more reinforcements.
If Matz simply rediscovers his 2019 form, however, then the Mets will have themselves a guy who will keep his club in play and who knows the terrain and the expectations that come with a reasonable price. Will the team’s updated analytics help Matz get closer to that 2015 peak? Then it will become a bargain.
This is by far the most exciting call the Mets will make this winter. It’s next on the record, though, and the depth of the list will be essential if they want to scale up in relevance right away. It’s an easy call for a guy who won’t necessarily present an easy return on investment. And thanks to the Mets ’new status in the baseball world, it’s a call you can make without worrying about the tax consequences of those odds turning against them.