Aaron Rodgers ’experience hasn’t been anything spectacular until this one in 2020. He’s currently the No. 1 QB in the NFL in the EPA (Extra Points Score) composite metric per game and percentage of completion above expectation. If you isolate his games with a healthy offensive line and good weather conditions, his stats are even more superb, which explains problems for the Colts as Rodgers heads home to Lucas Oil Stadium with his full line of protection and weapons. (including wide receiver Davante Adams).
The Indianapolis defense has been excellent this season when facing lower competition, but this will prove to be its toughest test by far and will really challenge its No. 4 ranking in DVOA (Defense -justed Value Over Average).
Philip Rivers has been inconsistent at his best this season and has been particularly suspected of playing from behind, giving the Packers a nice matchup advantage as they continue to shine in the so-called first game and offensive success. The right price in this competition is a choice for my numbers, so I will gladly take the dog on the money line.
The game: Packers on money line, +105.
Bonus Play: Dolphins in Broncos, Under 45.5. The era Vic Fangio showed us a coach who has a propensity for conservative game planning that comes out of a performance prone to turnover, which helps set the stage for a rough and slow game of football in Denver in Week 11 Drew Lock had his worst day as a professional last week, throwing four interceptions and amassing the worst QB ranking of any active passer since returning from injury Week 6.
The Dolphins will go into a rage with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa still undefeated as a rookie, but in the high-altitude elements, this will be his toughest test of the season, and it’s unlikely that the Dolphins will air it – especially if it’s they can win defensively as they have in recent weeks. The fair price is 43 from my numbers, so the Bottom is a strong aspect.