It’s been a slow 2020 sports build, but this weekend we have one of the most exciting deals on the sports calendar in a long time: Week 2 of the NFL season, college football, NBA and NHL Playoffs, MLB pennant chases, a NASCAR race, and on top of all that, we crowned PGA Tour Player of the Year Dustin Johnson leading a top-flight course at the 120th U.S. Open at the Winged Foot Golf Club. I’ve never had the decision to watch either a major PGA or the NFL, and it completely confused me. I know I would have chosen to watch one of the four golfs on any of these other sports, but not the NFL. I think I’ll probably have the Sunday Ticket on my laptop while I put Sunday at the US Open on my big screen. I’m pumped through everything – and that includes my DFS lines.
Remember when everyone was amazed at how much of a challenge Olympia Fields posed to these players at the BMW Championship? It will be a walk in the park compared to what Winged Foot will put on these players this weekend. Winged Foot has hosted five US Opens and a PGA Championship in its historical history. Only in the 1984 US Open did the winner finish the tournament with a point below par. In the other four, the winning average point was five on par. The last trip here for the US Open was in 2006, and the average lap was 75, only one hole played under par for the week, and there were only 12 laps marked in total under par throughout the weekend. . Hale Irwin won here in ’74 with a final score of seven draws. USGA President Sandy Tatum said: “We are not trying to humiliate the best players in the world. We’re just trying to identify them. ”
If I tell you that Winged Foot had 7,469 yards and played as a Par 70, it would be enough to know that this course will be very difficult – but not alone. It is known to have extremely hard mass surfaces. Colin Montgomerie finished runner-up at the 06 U.S. Open and said, “I think the whole world is here for three.” The tracks are so crazy that players joke that you can see the bottom of the cup from the fairway. They might say that in mockery, but on some of the holes, it’s not an exaggeration.
After reading all of this, I will definitely like Gained Strokes: Means as one of my key statistics. The bombers will have an advantage and these guys will hit it much harder than the 2006 guys, but they will also avoid deep things. Like most all courses in the United States of America, you will be penalized if you land at large. Knowing all this, I will be adding Strokes Gained: Off the Tee as one of my other key stats. You know I got the shots I won: Approach, too.
These players will be bogey and very bogey this weekend, but the player who can avoid the most will take the title at home. That’s why I avoid bogey in my key statistics. This is another course with a handful of Par 4s between 450 and 500 yards, so I’m going to look at the efficiency of players in that range. We also run with a bunch of really long Par 3s, so I’m going to target the Par 3s efficiency 200-225. These players will be set to complete at Winged Foot and survival will be the word of the week.
The weather seems to be fine with the times in the mid 60’s over the weekend. As of now, there is no real rain in the forecast with winds extending into both figures. As for the conditions, it will be much more pleasant than it was a few weeks ago at Olympia Fields.
PGA DFS Strategy: US Open
The last thing I wanted to add is about list building this weekend. I have already highlighted why this course is so hard and how much it will be a struggle. I think knowing that, you need to target six good golfers in your lines. That means going with a balanced structure over stars and scrubs. I’ll give you some deep dive games, but there’s a reason those players are less than $ 7K, and the probability of making the cut is minimal. The way to score big prizes in these GPPs is to get six players across the board and hope they can make a move over the weekend. Yes, you may just be able to get one of the biggest dogs in your lineup, but I prefer that my most prized type be both Brendon Todd and JT Poston I want to trust that everyone in my lineup has the ability to make the cut.
Shots Won: Approach
Shots Won: Out of the Tee
Shots Won: Putting
From 4 Efficiency 450-500
For 3 Efficiency 200-225
SMALL ONE AND FACE: Daniel Berger
Small US Open PGA DFS experts
Daniel Berger: If you can ignore his missing cut in the Memorial, it’s been a stellar season for Berger with finishes of 9th, 5th, 4th, 7th, 1st, 3rd, MC, 2nd, 13th, 3rd, 25th, and 15th from Waste Management back in January. He’s another guy who only fits the mold for success since he ranks ninth in Par 4 Efficiency 450-500, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 17th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 27th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and 34th in Strokes Gained: Approach. There is no reason no to play him this Sunday.
Adam Scott. The only thing that can be said about Scott is that he is well rested. He has really limited his schedule for the PGA Tour season. This will be his 13th trip to the US Open, he knows what to expect, and how to play smart this event. It has five top-20 finishes, which include three top-10 finishes. He is the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting and top 25 in Bogey Avoidance. I really like the old vet this weekend.
Justin Thomas. Despite only having two top-10 finishes and a win under his belt this season, I’m still a believer that he can do it this weekend. He’s another guy who can bounce off a bad hole or a turn, placed eighth in Bogey Avoidance. He is first in Strokes Gained: Approach, 22nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and eight in Par 4 Efficiency.
Rasmus Hjogaard. Unless you play the Euro Tour DFS regularly, you probably don’t know this kid. I say “kid” because he can’t legally drink at just 19. He has two wins, a second place, and a third place in his last 12 starts. He is actually three times top winner Jordan Spieth in the official world golf rankings. He is fourth on the Euro Tour in Gained Strokes: Off the Tee and fifth in Driving Distance.
Webb Simpson. Simpson won the 2012 U.S. Open and then dropped a bit on the golf card before having a wake-up call in the last three seasons. It fits so well in the mold here. He is first in Bogey Avoidance, first in Par 4 Efficiency 450-500, sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach, 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 13th in Par 3 Efficiency 200-225.
Collin Morikawa. U only what scares me about his game is the mass. He’s pretty much on the road when it comes to this, so he’s going to fight on these greens like everyone else. He stands out for being a ball striker first. He is second on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and 19th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The PGA Championship winner has a legitimate back-to-back blow in Major play.